Most people are familiar with the concept of a boycott—withholding economic or other benefits in order to punish bad behavior. But what if, instead of punishing bad guys, we want to reward good guys? A “buycott” aims to do just that, as it bestows economic or other benefits in order to reward positive action.
The Vacation Pledge for Equal Marriage Rights, then, is a buycott of sorts. The signatories seek to induce a positive action (the democratic legalization of same-sex marriage) by promising a reward (tourist dollars from vacationers). Legislators may be more likely to vote in favor of equal marriage rights if they can persuade skeptical constituents that the legal change means money in their pockets.
How much could a state gain economically from being the first to democratically legalize same-sex marriage?
That depends in part on whether or not you sign the pledge! The more people sign up, the greater the financial incentive for a state to legalize same-sex marriage.
The first state that gives same-sex couples equal marriage rights may dramatically increase its tourism. Couples from across the United States would travel to the first-mover state, perhaps bringing family and friends along. In the process, of course, they would spend money. In 1995, Jennifer Brown estimated that the present value of a change in marriage law for the first-mover state could reach three or four billion dollars. Tourism revenue is not an end in itself; each tourist dollar spent generates additional private income, tax revenue, and jobs. Forbes magazine recently estimated that, if same-sex couples currently living together would marry, they would spend $16.8 billion in the first several years following legalization. While it is difficult to estimate the economic gains precisely, they will be significant.
A successful legislative or popular vote will show that “the people” accept and support marriage equality. In doing so, it will undermine the opposition’s rhetoric about “activist judges” imposing same-sex marriage on an unwilling populace. Such arguments about judicial activism are central to the proposed federal constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. While the landmark judicial decision in Massachusetts is a major victory to be celebrated, democratic legalization of same-sex marriage will, in some ways, be an even greater step in the move toward acceptance and equality. And it could even help to protect our federal constitution from unnecessary and discriminatory amendments.
We are reluctant to make any predictions, but there are number of factors that suggest certain states may be likely candidates. For example, a state that is politically progressive is more likely to welcome GLBT tourists, friends, and families. The Vacation Pledge will be particularly motivating to states with economies that rely heavily upon tourism. And small states will feel the greatest per capita boost from the added tourism revenue. These factors point to three states that have already demonstrated a willingness to recognize same-sex couples (to varying degrees): Hawaii, New Mexico, and Vermont. The pledge could provide a nudge to move them toward full marriage equality.
The democratic “trigger” of the pledge might be particularly relevant to the coming battle in Massachusetts. Although the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court mandated same-sex marriage in 2003, the Massachusetts legislature will vote in 2005 on a proposed constitutional amendment that would undo the court’s decision. If the legislature approves the proposed amendment in 2005, it will proceed to a vote of the general populace in 2006. This gives Massachusetts’s legislators and citizens two opportunities to defeat the proposed constitutional amendment. If either of these votes rejects the amendment (and implicitly embraces the court’s requirement of marriage equality, Massachusetts will achieve our nation’s first major democratic embrace of same-sex marriage. Bills to extend marriage to same-sex couples have also been introduced in California, Connecticut, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
If you sign the pledge, you are promising that you will take a vacation in the first state that democratically chooses (by either legislation or voter referendum) to legalize same-sex marriage, within three years of the effective date of the legislation. It is unlikely that your promise would be legally enforceable, but you should consider yourself morally bound to keep your word. Please sign the pledge only if you are committed to taking the vacation.
The three-year time frame should be long enough so that people do not feel unduly constrained when signing the pledge, and the potential first mover does not fear an overwhelming influx of visitors following the recognition of marriage for same-sex couples. If the time frame is too great, signatories may be less likely to remember and honor their pledge and the state will discount future revenue increases to account for the time value of money.
The list of names and addresses will serve as a major “carrot” to states that may adopt same-sex marriage, as the list of potential visitors will be very useful to the state’s tourism board. In addition, addresses help us keep track of people to prevent duplicated signatures and to help verify that our numbers are accurate when we start to tell states how much they could benefit from adopting equal marriage rights.
To some, there is something distasteful about an appeal for support on the basis of economic gains when right-minded lawmakers should support same-sex marriage because it is the right thing to do. We understand concerns with commodifying law, but in some ways the ship has sailed. Corporations and sports teams often promise to locate in a state if they are promised certain tax breaks, for example. The reality of politics is that legislators sometimes need a variety of rationales for the actions they want to take. If legislators believe that their constituents are split or uncertain about marriage for same sex couples, economic factors might tip the balance. We believe securing same-sex marriage is worth the cost of commodification.
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No. All of the economic benefits from the pledge will flow to the first state that legalizes same-sex marriage through a legislative or popular vote.